Zipf’s law is a pattern of distribution stating that when two given variables of certain data sets are analysed, a pattern emerges where the frequency of a given data value is inversely proportional to its frequency. The reason to why is still unknown to researchers but yet it applies to anything from word usuage to a population of people ina city. Put basically in an example, Zipf’s law is the pattern of how the second largest city is half the size of the largest whilst the third largest city in that country is a third of the size of the largest and so on[1] . In terms of Zipf’s Law the UK is very strange. Seven out of the eight largest cities outside London perform below the national average in terms of GDP per person compared to Germany where all 8 outdo the national average[2] meaning that the UK doesn’t fit this pattern. Of course there will always be exceptions but meanwhile the North struggles to compete. Fiscal policies with good intentions move business away from Pennine Hills towards southern coasts whilst investment is crushingly low, failing to remedy the issue. Why is the North in such disparity and why is London ‘evolving to be the capital of the world’[3]?
Prof. Danny Darling’s North South Divide[4]
Cities, history suggests, naturally have their chance to rise and fall. Creative destruction bides its time until it feels it necessary to start choking off an industry. In the late Victorian era Liverpool was the nation’s greatest shipyard, home to the most millionaires outside of London and a huge driving force in what was a much more economically balanced UK; the North had 26.9% of the national GDP whilst London held 21.1%[5]. Liverpool’s population was once 856,000 in 1931 but in 2001 stood at 439,000.[6] The invention of the aeroplane sapped the shipping industry and caused the internal migration of thousands of people who went to look for greater economic prospects. Since then many say that Liverpool is still struggling to move on, mostly to the fault of planning restrictions that cover a large area of the city, acting as a ‘almost insurmountable barrier to the type of urban growth that the region desperately needs.’[7] A study by SERC featured in a Telegraph article shows that any legal authority that moves from average levels of planning to no restrictions would generate housing 35% cheaper[8]. This is due to how companies can now build without the time consuming paper work whilst also being able to build where it wasn’t feasible previously. This increases supply and reduces price. Obviously, regulation needs to be maintained to a degree but it shows the potential which a city has to step up and start competing with its southern neighbours.
History and politics clearly take a large role in a regions economic prospects and current stand point, however, investment is one of the largest contributing factors to the over-centralisation which sharply separates the North from the South. When the coalition government came into power Public Sector Net Investment was 3.3% of GDP, yet today it lies at 1.5% with investment notably in local roads, which make up the majority of the national network, falling[9]. The previous government’s austerity programme caused 25% in cuts in five years which has greatly harmed government spending in The North whilst London continues to receive huge investment such as the London Crossrail; a £15 billion venture to create another underground network for London’s booming population. As well as this a new £1.5bn port is being built in London to provide imports of food for surrounding supermarkets and consumer demands.[10] Whilst the North is not without government investment (a further £7bn has been committed to the North)[11] it does seem to be lacking the buzz and momentum which occupies London programmes. This is highlighted by a report by the UK Treasury in a finding that over the last 5 years government spending per person per year in London is twice that of the North East. With this the new HS2 programme to connect London to Manchester and Leeds has been announced by the government to be completed in 2033.[12] Supply side policies, many agree, are to the benefit of the economy as a whole but the time lag adds to desperation of the situation. It may be that these investments are only a rope ladder an even greater future divide as London continues to thrive and grow.
On top of this these supply side policies in London however merely allow London to grow instead of initiating growth outside the London area. For every job created outside London and Southern England in the UK, twelve have been made inside London and Southern England.[13] The figure is large but not surprising; London makes up a fifth of the total of the UK’s GDP. Put into perspective that is the combined GDP of Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and the West Midlands put together. As well as this 800,000 people commute into London everyday whilst those working will produce 29% more per hour than the UK’s average worker.[14] 38% of the worker population of London itself is university graduates and this high level does not go unnoticed. Google is spending £650m on offices in Kings Cross where they have the biggest pool of talent to choose from.
It is the economics of agglomeration which gives London such a striking advantage over the rest of the country. The compact positioning means industries and individuals can compete, copy and collaborate together creating the unique “London Buzz” and making a more competitive and productive workforce. The movement towards dependence on human capital is rapidly increasing, as stated by Nicholas Crafts of Warwick University, successful cities have excellent universities close to employ students as soon as they graduate, giving rise of cities such as Cambridge, York and Edinburgh.
Richard de Cani- Director of Transport and Planning at TFL states on BBC’s Mind the Gap programme, people are choosing between London, Paris and New York- not London or Manchester- if London doesn’t get investment then the UK misses out altogether. A line in a Telegraph article about the struggling city regions states ‘logically, these cities should wither and die, with their inhabitants forced to seek work in a smaller number of more successful cities.[15]
Consequently, ‘the North is poorer and contributes far less to the national GDP than the South East’[16] and has the worst divide ‘than any country of comparable size’[17] . However, the government has been trying to correct the imbalance. Under Gordon Brown, a great amount of the public sector was relocated to Northern regions and the benefit system was enabled to help create a greater spending power for Northern individuals. However, the policies have created a more reliant and dependant culture where the private sector has been pushed out of the areas along with the innovation and jobs. The negative impacts are then multiplied by the current austerity programme and latest recession, which effected confidence and innovation in the North. This has negatively effected the most dependant on public sector work disproportionately badly.[18]
In the BBC’s own poll they found that amongst the population 21% of individuals thought London success was damaging the UK economy whilst 62% thought it benefitted.[19] There is equal reason to remain positive. In combination with figure, Manchester has devised the Greater Manchester Combined Authority, a ‘’super council’ of a local government. London has given control over its own transport policy which has been estimated to save the tax payer between £9bn-£21bn as it has been given control over its own housing investment fund, skills and training and also its own health and social care budget.[20] As well as this the BBC recently moved to Salford Keys and later with it ITV followed, relocating the entire Coronation Street set and setting up a large media network. To many this is a step in the right direction as spending can be more reliable and focused in the area, building confidence that is highlighted by BBC’s transition of placement.
In the end, London is successful because it is a large city with all the right characteristics, according to Henry Overman- Director of the Spatial and Economics Research Centre at LSE- it generates its own success by attracting highly skilled workers, making it easy for highly skilled workers to interact in the presence of industries that demand these sort of people. It can seem a rather lonely option but it seems that the North might have to take a leaf out of London’s book and allow the South to remain the economic hub of the UK whilst working away itself. The North needs investment to attract key industries and high skilled workers so that it may fall into the natural and circular rhythm that London has made for itself. For this to happen the cities must grow and attract specialist industries which can thrive together. The dilemma lies in the fact that for the greatest effect the investment cannot be spread too broadly. Again, the North can remain hopeful but has to remain realistic for fear of becoming, in the words of Evan Davies, “a spoke in the hub that is London”.
[1] New York Times Blogs, A Tale of Many Cities, Edward L. Glaeser, 20/4/10, http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/04/20/a-tale-of-many-cities/?_r=0 (Accessed September 2015)
[1] The Zipf Mystery,VSauce, Youtube,https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fCn8zs912OE (Accessed September 2015)
[2] The Economist, Spreading Their Wings, Issue Losing the Middle East, June 6th-12th 2015
[3] Boris Johnson featuring on Mind the Gap- London Vs The Rest, Evan Davies, BBC Production, 2014
[4] Prof. Danny Darling’s North-South Divide, Life in UK ‘has become lonelier’, BBC News, Tom Warren, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/7724573.stm (Accessed Sepember 2015)
[5] Prof. N. Crafts Featuring on Mind the Gap- London Vs The Rest, Evan Davies, BBC Production, 2014
[6] Demographia, England Largest Cities:
Population & Density from 1891, http://www.demographia.com/db-ukcities.htm (Accessed September 2015)
[7] Why Britain needs its little cities to grow up, Jeremy Warner, The Telegraph, July 2013, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10188204/Why-Britain-needs-its-little-cities-to-grow-up.html (Accessed September 2015)
[8] Ibid
[9] The Economist, The Great Incubator, Issue Jan 31st– Feb 6th 2015 Go Ahead Angela, Make My Day.
[10] Mind the Gap- London Vs The Rest, Evan Davies, BBC Production, 2014
[11] Ibid
[12] Tom de Castella and Kathryn Westcott, HS2: 20 reasons why it can take 20 years to build a railway, 29/1/13, BBC News, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-21231044 (Accessed September 2015)
[13] Helen Pidd, UK’s north-south divide has widened, says thinktank , Guardian, 19/1/15 http://www.theguardian.com/cities/2015/jan/19/north-south-divide-widen-thinktank-data (Accessed September 2015)
[14] Mind the Gap- London Vs The Rest, Evan Davies, BBC Production, 2014
[15] Ibid
[16] Jenni Viitawen, LSE Blogs, http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/economic-inequality-and-polarisation-why-place-matters/ (Accessed September 2015)
[17] Why Britain needs its little cities to grow up, Jeremy Warner, The Telegraph, July 2013, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10188204/Why-Britain-needs-its-little-cities-to-grow-up.html (Accessed September 2015)
[18] Ibid
[19] Mind the Gap- London Vs The Rest, Evan Davies, BBC Production, 2014
[20] The Economist, Spreading Their Wings, Issue Losing the Middle East, June 6th-12th 2015
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